April 16 Recap: Sabonis Falls Just Short, But the Process Holds Steady ❌
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Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 Assists (-105)
Final Result: 5 Assists
Final Stat Line: 11 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST · 37 MIN
Sometimes the line is sharp, the role is clear, the game is competitive — and the result still comes up short. That’s what happened last night with Sabonis’ assist prop, which ended two dimes shy of the cash.
🧠 The Read Was Solid
- He played a full 37 minutes in a close playoff atmosphere
- The game script was ideal — no blowout, no foul trouble
- He distributed steadily across all four quarters, but never had a spike — it was a quiet 1–2 assists per quarter
- Finished with 5 assists despite orchestrating much of the Kings’ offense
This wasn’t a bad beat — but it was a bet that had reasonable expectation to hit and just didn’t get there.
📈 Where We Stand
✅ Recent Record: 11-2
💰 Units Won: +7.01
Still incredibly strong. Still exactly the kind of results we aim for with a sharp, data-driven approach. And still fully on pace to hit our long-term unit goal.
🎯 The Takeaway
Even the best props fall short sometimes — especially when you’re playing sharp lines with good value on the odds at -105. That’s part of the game. No chasing. No overreacting.
Just take the L, log the result, and move on to the next spot.
We reset. We reanalyze. We move forward!
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