April 9 Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists — Can He Break Through vs. Boston? 🎯

We've now hit 5 in a row and we’re sticking to the plan: one sharp prop, backed by matchup insight, role consistency, and careful line evaluation. Tonight, we’re locking in a bet on Jalen Brunson’s playmaking, but we’re not doing it blindly.

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✅ Today’s Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (+105)

📍 Knicks vs. Celtics — 7:30 PM ET

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🧠 Why This Bet Has Value

1. Brunson’s Role is Safe — and Big

Since returning from injury, Jalen Brunson has stepped right back into his role as the offensive hub of the Knicks. In his return against Phoenix, he:

• Logged 34 minutes
• Racked up 6 assists
• Controlled the half-court flow and pick-and-roll action

Brunson jumped right back into action which is exactly what we want to see. He was able to take on a fairly significant workload and didn't appear to suffer any setbacks, so he should be handling his normal minutes in tonight's game.

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2. The Line Offers Great Value at +105

This line opened at 6.5 and hasn’t moved up despite his recent usage and solid assist rate. Getting plus money (+105) on a line that he’s cleared in:

• 27 of 49 games this season (55.1%)
• While averaging 7.4 APG

...gives us just enough juice to make this worth the shot.

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⚠️ But Let’s Be Honest — the Boston Matchup Is Tough

Here’s where we need to tread carefully:

• Brunson’s last 3 games vs. Boston:
  • 4 assists
  • 5 assists
  • 2 assists
• Boston defends the pick-and-roll well and switches often, which limits clean passing lanes.
• The Celtics are top 10 in opponent assists allowed, so this won’t be an easy ride.

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🧾 Why We’re Still Taking the Bet

This is one of those spots where the line and odds outweigh the recent matchup history.

We’re not saying this is a lock — but:

• The volume is there
• The role is consistent
• And +105 odds for 7+ assists is strong value given the context

Even against a tough defense, if Brunson plays 35+ minutes and stays aggressive, we believe the opportunity is there.

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💰 Bet Summary:

• Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (+105)
• 1 Unit
• Confidence Level: Moderate — value-driven, but aware of matchup concerns

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Let’s see if Brunson can break through the Boston wall and keep our sharp streak rolling.

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